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July 07, 2004
Rasmussen's Robots
Rasmussen detected a Veepstakes bounce...for Bush. The problem with Rasmussen's robots is VERY hard to put my finger on. But here's a start: Edwards faves/unfaves are 45/24/31, Cheney's are 40/43/17. So in a survey where Bush gets 47% of the voters, 40% have a favorable view of Cheney.
This makes me think that part of the problem with Rasmussen's robots is that somehow it's talking mostly to partisans. I'd say last night's survey was 40% Republican and 43% or so Democratic. Which is weighted a lot higher than the overall population by about 20% total, which means independents are underrepresented in his surveys.
Maybe you could reweight the poll for a more traditional outcome...then those 1 point swings (which is all we ever see anymore) might double or triple and be more like a traditional poll.
Fair and Balanced moment: The good thing about robo-polls is that they are cheap! It doesn't take 60 people a whole night to do a poll, just a computer that can make endless calls. Some political consultants also think they encourage leaners -- for some reason a lot of people tell human interviewers that they are still undecided, but are more inclined to press 1 on their telephone if they're leaning Kerry.
Why? I'm not sure. A lot of people try to either impress pollsters or please them -- indecision can seem intelligent if the impression that you give is that you're following the race closely and trying to make the most informed decision. And if you're just trying to please the person on the other end but you can't figure out what their perceived bias is, just say you're undecided. At least you won't upset them. These human urges don't really apply when a computer is taking the survey.
Posted by Chris at July 7, 2004 01:50 PM
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