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August 03, 2004
And Another Thing
More for the post below: It is not normal for there to be so few undecided voters, the polarity in this election is unprecedented. Unlike other years, people want to make a decision, even if it changes. Most of the movement in polls goes between the candidates, with that wonder of the modern world, the undecided voter, staying undecided. So it could be a "secret" bounce that the number of Kerry voters who may change their mind shrunk in a number of polls from an average of about 13% to an average of about 5%. Pollsters call the different types of voters "Hard" voters and "Soft" voters. Let's say that the number of Soft voters shrunk from 20% to 10%. If Kerry maintained his support and Bush didn't add any or lost ground, as he did in many polls, that does not bode well for the remaining 10% who will eventually (even if it is on Nov 2nd) make up their mind.
The bottom line is that the media totally bought into Bush's spin -- Kerry hasn't gotten that magical 15% bounce (which would totally have doomed Bush if it came true, I wonder why his pollsters were expecting it?) and rather than do some investigation and serious analysis have basically let BC '04 write this week's poll stories for them. There's that do it cheap, do it fast, lazy bias, the real bias of the media.
Posted by Chris at August 3, 2004 09:30 PM
Comments
It's goes beyond lazy, it's going with the crowd and trying to "out-fox" FNN. It's ridiculous. What about polling people who are going to vote for the first time in November? I'd really be interested to see a 500-600 person poll in Georgia of first-time voters and which way they're leaning on federal races.
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