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October 05, 2004

Centrism

So, Marshall Whittman, McCainiac #1 endorses John Kerry and joins the centrist DLC. Wither moderate Republicanism? Something to think about over the next few weeks, and especially in light of how the election breaks down, is the future of moderate/conservative Democrats and liberal/moderate Republicans.

Of course, a lot of the blogosphere reserves much of their contempt for these two breeds, but the American people haven't been so quick to embrace this contempt. Polls pretty consistently show that about 25% of the population describe themselves as liberal, 40% moderate and 35% conservative. I suspect that the liberal and conservative numbers are actually closer to each other and the moderate number is either a little bigger (including some of the conservatives) or a little lower (bleeding a little to the liberal side).

One of the problems with those labels is that over the last 30 years being a "liberal" is NOT a good thing and being a "conservative" is. A better poll would pick 10 or 15 questions and score people on a liberal/moderate/conservative scale based on their answers and not whatever label they personally feel comfortable with.

I might describe myself as a conservative Democratic but in actuality there are Democrats far more conservative than myself; at the same time a Republican might call me a liberal and not even grant me admission to the moderate's club. On the other hand, I'm comfortable with Democrats far more conservative (or liberal) than me whereas it seems a lot of the GOP power structure would just assume right off the Northeast if they could lock up the South and West.

Which brings me back to the original point I was trying to make, sort of. It seems very possible that the moderate Republican is heading the way of the dinosaur. Is the same thing happening to moderate Democrats or can they thrive? If you look at where we are right now, and think about where support will shift, it actually paints a pretty rosy picture for the DLC types.

Of all of the constituencies that support Democrats, the growing ones (affluent minorities and suburban whites) will look to a moderate force to either sustain their party identification or convert it. Meanwhile, Republican maximization in rural areas depends on a heavy emphasis on social issues which may squeeze some remaining conservative Democrats but makes it even harder for moderate Republicans in suburban areas to form coalitions with their new mouth-breathing cousins from the hills.

Now, back to McCain. Why exactly does he so enthusiastically support Bush whenever he's called on by the campaign? Doesn't make much sense to me. If Bush wins, you will not be the nominee of the GOP in 2008 unless your name is Jeb Bush. On the other hand, if Bush loses, McCain will be looking to revive his brand of Republicanism from what will be a shellshocked party...But why would they listen to him? In his primary he railed against the religious right and corporate influence over the GOP but doesn't seem to have a problem with Bush's pandering and handouts to the same group. It seems more likely to me that a Deaniac conservative will step up in the event of a Bush loss.

Which makes you wonder -- either McCain really has a problem with the modern GOP ala Lincoln Chafee or it's just a nice topic of conversation when he's with his base (news reporters). If I were a moderate Republican I'd be worried when the leaders of my "movement" don't seem to take it seriously and the proponents are seriously considering cutting and running.

Posted by Chris at October 5, 2004 04:32 PM

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Posted by: Wamba at October 6, 2004 05:00 PM

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