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October 16, 2004
Georgia polls in 2000
So, we know that the AJC's poll this year shows Bush up 51-41-8. What about 2000? At the end of October in 2000, the AJC released a poll showing Bush leading Gore 53-37-10. Of those 10 percent that were either other/undecided, one could conclude that 6 broke for Gore, 2 for Bush and 2 for other.
You could argue that Gore was the incumbent in 2000 and so these results would seem to go against the incumbent rule. However, in between the release of the AJC poll and election day Bush's DUI was learned about and national polling suggested that this caused the late undecideds to break for Gore.
Whatever the real story was, you can make a pretty good argument that the 50% rule applies to incumbents, and in a race like 2000 whoever was seen to be the winner. After all, in 2000 nobody thought Gore would win Georgia.
I would also point people to those late October/early November AJC polls that showed Barnes leading Perdue in the neighborhood of 48-40. If you recall, Barnes got pretty close to 48 (46 and change) on election day, while Perdue got 40 + pretty much all of the undecideds.
Like 2002, the AJC narrative was pretty much "Georgia Sticks With Barnres." And we all know how that turned out.
Posted by Chris at October 16, 2004 01:57 PM
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