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October 19, 2004

Survey USA to Bill Clinton: Come on Down!

Survey USA released 6 state polls yesterday. Kerry leads in Washington, Pennsylvania, Florida and California. He trails closely in North Carolina (50-47) and Arkansas (51-46). Interestingly, in the states he leads in he is doing better among Democratic voters than Bush is doing among Republican voters. That's something we haven't really seen in most national and state polls lately. In North Carolina and Arkansas Bush enjoys more solid support among Republicans than Kerry does among Democrats.

In the two Southern states, Kerry loses a not insignificant share of Democrats. This is most likely due to the fact that there are some older white voters in Southern states who are not ready to shed their Democratic self-ID (see Zell Miller) but vote for pretty much every Republican candidate on their ballot except for sherrif and county commissioner.

Now, these numbers overall look pretty good for Kerry. In states he must win, he's consolidated support among Democrats to levels greater than Bush has shown among Republicans. In each state, he's got a healthy lead among independents.

But what about Arkansas? If you look at the poll results, and especially compare the Presidential results to Blanche Lincoln's senate race (who looks set to romp), demographically it seems that Bill Clinton could seriously help Kerry make up some ground. Democrats and Independents make up a whopping 70% of Arkansas likely voters, and a 5 point net shift among these two groups would put Kerry ahead of Bush. If Kerry gets 2/3's of the current undecideds he'd only be behind by 4 points and would only need to take slightly more than 3 percent of the non-Republicans away from Bush.

Isn't Clinton scheduled to go home to Arkansas to recuperate from his surgery this week? Doesn't his library open soon, and doesn't he love media attention?

Posted by Chris at October 19, 2004 01:26 AM

Comments

Speaking about the President race in Florida if Jeb Bush controlls the votes in this election as he did in 2000 then Bush will win Florida.

Posted by: Granny Grace [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 19, 2004 09:58 AM

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