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November 12, 2004

Fair Maps

One of the worst things that could now happen to Democrats (admitedly) and one of the most arrogant things the newly elected Republicans could do would be to redistrict the state House and Senate.

For many years, Republicans as well as Jim Wooten used the total percentage of votes for a party's legislative candidates as some sort of benchmark for fairness for the maps used in that chamber. For example, Wooten would complain that though all Republican candidates received more votes than all Democratic candidates in the state House, they did not have a majority of seats -- thus the maps were unfair.

This year, Republicans received 56.6% of the two-party vote for state House, the Democrats got 43.4%. Republicans had more uncontested seats, however under the "fairness" formula advocated by the Republican party in years past they should be at about 102 seats. They are at 99. Close enough.

In state Senate races, Republicans got 57.7% of the two-party vote, Democrats got 42.3%. Under the "fairness" formula they would get 32 seats -- they actually won 34. Again, that seems close enough.

In congressional races, Republicans got 61.5% of the two-party vote, Democrats got 38.5%. Under the "fairness" formula they would get 8 seats and the Democrats would get 5. They've got 7, one short of 8 but Republicans ran uncontested in twice as many Congressional races in Georgia. In the 4th district, the polarizing Cynthia McKinney underperformed John Kerry by at least 10%. Right now we have 6 safe Republican Congressional seats, 4 safe Democratic ones and 3 highly competitive ones. Democrats have 2 of the 3 competitive ones -- Jim Marshall is clearly a good candidate, having won every county in a district that John Kerry only carried a handful of. John Barrow will be in Congress in part because Max Burns was such an embarassment, and Phil Gingrey returns in part for the same reason as Barrow.

The healthiest thing for a state's politics is for changes in the mood of the electorate to be implemented through the ballot box. Republicans have had a few good years in Georgia, and fair maps have finally reflected this in the makeup of the legislature. The worst thing, for the state, would be for the Republicans to use redistricting to crystalize one year's success for semi-permanent control of state government. Hopefully a party that believes redistricting brought down it's opposition won't change their convictions now that it would be convenient.

Posted by Chris at November 12, 2004 08:51 PM

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