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December 04, 2004

30% Black

Been meaning to discuss some of that blood libel that Jim Wooten wrote about the other day, namely that Democrats aren't able to compete in districts that aren't 30% black. He cherry picked state Senate districts because they happened to paint a convenient picture for him. However, it is misleading.

He states that Democrats don't hold any district that is 30% black or less by voter registration. This is technically true, but David Adelman, the state Senator from the 42nd district is in a district that is only 31.0% black by active voter registration. On election day it is a different story though -- in 2002 only 24.9% of the electorate was black and in 2000 it edged up only to 27.3% black. Most likely it was just below 29% this year. Did Adelman win in a squeaker, as Wooten's column would imply? Only if getting 78% of the vote qualifies as a squeaker. Adelman received a higher share of the vote than in any other contested state senate district. Even if he received 100% of the black vote AND it was 30% of the electorate, he would have still received nearly 69% of the non-black (mostly white) vote. He even recieved a higher percentage of the vote than many black Democrats running in majority black districts.

House District 80 is 13.6% black by active voter registration. In 2002 the electorate was 8.7% black. In 2000, 9.9%. Mike Jacobs won this year with 51% of the vote. If black voters made up 10% of the electorate this year and gave every one of their votes to Jacobs, he still would have received 45.6% of the white vote. Ten years ago, many of these same white voters were voting 70% Republican or higher.

In 2000, Senate District 40 was 6.7% black. There are more similarities to the voters in this district and Senate District 42 and House District 80 than there are differences. A majority of white voters in the DeKalb county portion of this district voted against the gay marriage ban. Wooten, who sees things in black and white, probably doesn't even have a district like this on his radar screen, and was likely surprised when his own paper endorsed the Democrat (who lost) this past year. This suburban district elected a Republican this year, but a majority of voters are probably put off by Glenn Richardson's promise to only pass bills that "strengthen the family."

The Republicans start this year with a governing majority that consists of rural whites and suburban whites. If they cater to the rural whites, we can probably kiss goodbye a lot of those 30% black rural districts. But we'll have openings in places like Senate District 40. Not all white voters (and not all black voters) are all alike, afterall. Ironically, the gay marriage amendment has exposed some potential cracks in the Republican suburban armor. In Forsyth county, only 16% of the population voted for Kerry but more than 22% voted against the amendment. My guess is that those 6% are open to a Democratic message, if only we start communicating with them. 6% doesn't sound like a lot, and it's certainly not enough to flip Forsyth county. But in Senate district 40, House District 82 and other places on the edge of the Democratic/Republican perimeter, 6% can go a long way.

Posted by Chris at December 4, 2004 11:43 PM

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