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May 06, 2005
British Elections
It's odd to watch British election coverage, where Blair and Labour won an unprecedented third term (wasn't really that close) and it's considered a huge disapointment. In the run up to the elections, observers predicted that, due to the way the constituencies (districts) were organized, the conservatives would need approximately a 7 point lead in the popular vote in order to win a majority. They lost by about 4 points -- if they'd done a few points better we'd probably be looking at a "hung" parliament. At that point Blair would have certainly been finished. The conventional wisdom is that his days are numbered, but I'm not so sure.
Some notable results: In 1997, openly gay Labour longshot Stephen Twigg defeated Michael Portillo (at that point considered a future Prime Minister) in a constituency that had always been Conservative. Portillo's long face and Twigg's seemingly impossible victory was a metaphor for Labour's incredible victory that year. In 2001 Twigg incrased his majority, but this year his seat went back to the Conservatives, ironically due in most part to Labour's support for the Iraq War.
Due to the nature of how candidates are fielded by the parties, an up and coming politician like Twigg will probably find his way back to the Parliament in a more labour friendly constituency. Interestingly, Portillo won an off year election in a heavily Tory district shortly after the '97 election when a vacancy occured. It's possible that if Blair resigns from Parliament later this year, party leaders could select Twigg to stand for Blair's Sedgefield constituency even though Twigg currently represents a London district.
Another interesting loss for labour occured in Wales, where the party, over the objections of local officials as well as the outgoing member of parliament fielded an all female slate, ostensibly to correct the problem of not enough women being in Parliament. A renegade Labour local elected official (a man) ran as an independent Labour candidate and crushed the official Labour candidate in what is considered probably the fifth safest Labour seat in the nation. I'm told that a few months ago his odds were 1000-1. That would have been a good bet to make.
Finally, if you didn't catch the BBC election coverage on C-Span, you really missed out. Not only does the BBC have amazing graphics, analysis and on-site coverage, but the back and forth between the anchors and the politicians is quite breathtaking if you're only used to the wimpy style of American political journalism. The BBC anchors manage to be provocative without resorting to shouting matches, the politicians are candid and witty without the gimmickry of a John McCain. Try to catch a rerun or something.
Posted by Chris at May 6, 2005 04:54 AM
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