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June 08, 2005
Hmmm
Here's something interesting to ponder. How have Montana, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Kansas, all states that Bush won by more than 10% elected Democratic governors, while every state except Illinios that Kerry won by more than 10% (California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island and even Vermont) have had trouble -- all currently have Republican incumbents (expect New York to flip soon, but possibly at the cost of Illinois flipping back to R).
Could it be that Democrats are having trouble winning states where the red/blue-rural/urban divide can replicate itself statewide as it appears on the national stage? In other words, Democrats have a big problem -- we can win where things are homogeneous (probably explains why so many local elected officials continue to be Democrats) even if that homogeny is Montana, but can't (or only barely do) where it's not, even when the not is Washington with it's Seattle/not Seattle divide (where Kerry won easily but Gregoire only did yesterday) or Georgia with it's Atlanta/not Atlanta split.
To me, it's something very interesting to think about. And it may also mean that the conventional wisdom for Democrats -- turn to a red stater -- isn't in actuality that relevant. What might be far more important is to find a nominee from a diverse state (either by race or by regional differences) regardless of whether that state is generally Republican or Democratic.
In that context, surely Hillary Clinton's success and experience appealing to traditionally Republican upstate New York voters (where being aligned with urban politics is a liability) is worth more than Evan Bayh's ability to win in a state where, though Republican, everyone more or less agrees with each other. Something to think about.
Posted by Chris at June 8, 2005 01:43 AM
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