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July 18, 2005
So many polls
With so many polls appearing in the newsmedia these days (probably the legacy of the 2004 campaign) it would be helpful if news organizations would start reporting more than just the top line results. Political pollsters and the consultants and candidates who read their polls know that the real story is in the crosstabs.
Here's a non-partisan example. Imagine the AJC did a poll in which 90% of respondents said it was important to own a couch. Would you then rush to open your own couch showroom? No, you'd need to know if any of the 90% in favor of couch ownership didn't currently own a couch, or if they were looking for a new couch, or what it would take to get them to actually purchase said couch.
Similarly, Americans could have huge disapproval ratings of the Congress -- but that doesn't necessarily mean that Democrats are about to sweep the Republicans out of power. The poll might actually show that a lot of the disapproval comes from Republican voters who are upset at Democratic obstructionism, while many Democratic voters are happy with increased entitlement spending.
And don't even get my started on horserace polls taken years before an election even happens. As the Insider noted today, those are great for fundraising, but if the election date isn't that close they're pretty meaningless, unless you can see the crosstabs and see where the opportunities lie both for you and your opponent. Nothing proves this more than all of those Presidential polls from 2003 that showed Bush crushing his many Democratic opponents by margins of 15 and 20 points. We all know how that race turned out.
Posted by Chris at July 18, 2005 04:30 PM
Comments
Yeah, I often feel that frustration with polls. I mean, if someone asked me 'do you approve of the way Bush is handling foreign policy?' I would say 'no,' but for vastly different reasons than your rank-and-file Democrat would.
Posted by: drzachary ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.chrisishardcore.com//nav-commenters.gif)
at July 19, 2005 09:36 AM
You will find that those type of responses more or less even out. Still, it would be nice to know for sure.
Posted by: chris at July 19, 2005 11:06 AM
How about the fact that most people think an approval rating is a zero-sum game? The news doesn't ever really make it clear that a 45% approval rate does not mean there's a 55% disapproval rate.
Posted by: MEM at July 19, 2005 05:30 PM
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