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August 23, 2005

1998 Polls

As a reminder not to put too much stock in polls taken this far away from an election, here are the results of some polls conducted leading up to the 1998 Governor's election here:

GSU Statewide Poll taken Oct, 1997:
Guy Millner (R) 37
Lewis Massey (D) 35

Lewis Massey (D) 37
Mike Bowers (R) 35

Guy Millner (R) 42
Roy Barnes (D) 29

Mike Bowers (R) 37
Roy Barnes (D) 29

So Barnes, the eventual winner, didn't even get above 30% a little over a year before the election. Millner, who had run statewide twice in the previous 3 years, peaked at 42. Perdue, who ran statewide and has access to the media everyday, currently tops out around 52 or 53.

GSU Statewide Poll taken March, 1998:
Millner (R) 47
Massey (D) 29

Millner (R) 48
Barnes (D) 27

Massey (D) 34
Bowers (R) 32

Bowers (R) 34
Barnes (D) 31

I think it's funny that less than a year out from the election, the eventual Republican nominee was beating both leading Democrats by 20 points, and the conventional wisdom that year was that the Democrats were in big trouble (in reality Roy Barnes romped in both the primary and general election). Now, even further from the election, both Democratic candidates routinely poll in the 40's against an incumbent Republican governor and some people don't think Sonny's going to have a tough race? It's strange how the CW can shift.

Posted by Chris at August 23, 2005 01:20 PM

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