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August 18, 2005
Morris's Math
The Political Vine reports that Republicans in Greg Morris's district won't necessarily take kindly to him just because he erased the D behind his name and penciled in an R. I'm not sure about that (I literally have no idea what the Republicans are like in HD 155) but I do know this: Over 7,000 voters in HD 155 voted in the Democratic primary, while less than 2,000 chose a Republican primary last July.
That means that the "default" primary in that area is still the Democratic one. My guess is that local offices are still heavily Democratic and only the very faithful vote in the Republican primary, which could be a problem for Greg Morris. You see, the district has trended Republican (Morris got less than 53% in 2004) but a majority of people in the district are just voting for the Democrat or Republican, not caring too much who that is.
However, in the Republican primary you've got the core activists who've had a target on Morris's back for years. And with all of the action being in the Democratic primary next year (for the Governor's race) the Republican primary might not include any non-activists in his district. Call it the Ann Purcell effect. She switched before the primary and was manhandled at the voting booth.
So Greg Morris is gone, and that's fine with me. Good luck to him. But if he switched simply to remain in the legislature, he might find that although it's hard to win the general election in his district as "the Democrat", it's near impossible to win the Republican primary as "Greg Morris".
Posted by Chris at August 18, 2005 12:08 PM
Comments
BINGO. He's not just dis-liked down here, he is hated. If ANY credible Republican runs in the primary, Morris is done.
Posted by: GOPFaithful ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.chrisishardcore.com//nav-commenters.gif)
at August 18, 2005 10:33 PM
There is no question, however, that if Morris gets through the Republican primary he will have an easier time in the general election in 2006 as a Republican. I assume part of the deal with switching parties was that no credible Republican opponent would challenge him in the 2006 Republican Primary.
As far as the general election numbers, this district went 61% for Bush in 2000, 61% for Saxby and 68% for Perdue in 2002. Not sure about the 2004 numbers, but I bet Bush bested his 2000 performance. If Morris remained a Democrat he would have had an extremely difficult time holding on to the 53% he got in 2004. We'll see if a primary challenger emerges.
Posted by: Decaturguy at August 19, 2005 12:06 PM
Decaturguy, you're probably correct about a deal being made. But with only 1,500 or so Republican primary voters, a deal-breaker would have a better chance of being in the legislature than in almost any district in the state (all you have to do is win the primary).
Morris was awful during his campaign. He had a good profile with voters and could really have made some ground on Democratic issues - education, health care, etc. Instead he was obsessed with social issues. That's all he wanted to talk about, how conservative he was, and his margin tightened because the more he talked about it the more voters realized he was in the liberal party.
I'm not saying you don't need to be a conservative Dem to win a district like that -- for the most part you do. It's just how you run your campaign makes the difference. If you want to obsess about it, so will your voters. And the more you make it an issue, the more they realize it's something you're vulnerable on.
Posted by: chris at August 19, 2005 12:55 PM
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