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December 28, 2005
Southern Man?
There's been a little bit of a stir in the 'sphere about this Robert Novak article about Trent Lott's retirement and the possibility that Democratic former Attorney General Mike Moore would be his replacement in the Senate. That shouldn't come as a surprise to most Southern Dems, but alas they do not rule the liberal blogosphere.
Mississippi is 36% black, Alabama 26%, Georgia 29%, South Carolina 29% etc. All of them currently have Republican governors but had Democrats as recently as 2002. Neighboring Arkansas and Tennessee are only around 15% black yet have two Democratic Senators and one governor between them. Within these states, a Congressional district that is 29% black is considered in play. 36% districts are probably all held by Democrats and don't even warrant a serious challenge from a Republican.
So why can't these states be in play in a national Democratic election? Well part of it is a legacy of racial politics that has created a very polarized electorate. When Novak says "the GOP's Southern base, the bedrock of its national election victories, is an illegitimate legacy from racist Dixiecrats," he lets slip one of those uncomfortable truths of Southern politics. Nobody on either side is supposed to admit this, yet everyone knows that it is true.
Eventually, I think one of two things will happen. Culturally conservative Republicans, former Dixiecrats, will become alienated by the Republican party because it doesn't serve their economically liberal populist needs. Race is losing its currency with these voters, and the modern Republican party isn't able to make appeals to them like it's 1965. And if they do, they'll alienate their culturally moderate conservative suburban voters. A pro business Democrat (who may well be black himself) is ready to take their votes and the Chamber of Commerce's endorsement.
It's true, this has been predicted for a while and hasn't happened quite yet. Now is probably the time to write a book about it. After all, wily Southern Dems kept proving Merle & Earl Black wrong for decades, but they (the Blacks) were finally vindicated. And so will the many Southern Dems who keep pleading with national primary voters to nominate a Southern Dem (Edwards in 2004, Warner in 2008?).
Posted by Chris at December 28, 2005 01:23 PM
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