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February 14, 2006

R.I.P. Hackett

So, Paul Hackett has dropped out of the Ohio Senate Primary. Here was a guy who was never very progressive. He ran in a special election where he was the only Democratic Candidate for Congress in a six month time span, and in a district with a Democratic performance of about 35% he almost pulled it off, but largely because his status as the only Democrat on the ballot in the entire USA meant he could raise national money against an awful Republican candidate -- who is now in Congress despite her awfulness.

After he lost a special election for Congress, albeit an impressive loss, his online supporters, who were way more liberal than he was, encouraged him to run for US Senate in Ohio. The only problem is that a true progressive candidate, an incumbent Congressman from the Cleveland area named Sherrod Brown was already running. Something like 60% of Ohio's Democratic primary voters live in the Cleveland area. Less than 10% live in Hackett's Cincinatti metropolitan area.

So this guy basically had no chance. It would be like a little known Democrat from Brunswick running against John Lewis in a statewide primary in Georgia. The money dried up for Hackett, and Democratic Senate leaders probably did tell potential donors "Don't waste your money. This guy is going to lose the primary, and the Congressman who is going to win anyway needs your money to take on the Republican."

Folks, that is politics. When some netroots opinion leader with 1,000,000 readers tells them to give money to Joe Lieberman's primary opponent, is that dirty politics? Nope. It's just politics. When Senate leaders have a preference it's the same thing -- just politics. Don't like it? Well give your money to someone else. But it's your money, and a donor who hears that he shouldn't give to Hackett and then doesn't is exercising his rights -- it's his money afterall, not the netroots' ATM.

Is Hackett's withdrawal and retirement from politics some sort of defeat or wake up call to the netroots movement? They can choose to interpret it that way, but it would be a mistake. The new online movement has had limited success changing conventional things about politics that have always been true -- winning a tough Presidential election or a Senate seat Democrats don't usually hold are two good examples, and two lessons learned in '04. They have had some great successes in other areas, like putting a focus on special elections and combining limited resources to make a big difference, like in Hackett's special election.

If I had to guess, I'd say past political performance, which is based in large part on the ability of a candidate to acquire resources to win an election -- which is based primarily on previous election results in a given district, will be of minimal importance in special elections, because the activists on a state or national level will be able to marshall resources in a highly focused manner.

This is a huge development, and with Herseth, Chandler and Hackett we've already seen two examples of Democrats winning in districts they don't normally carry -- and then getting re-elected in a regular election, thus altering the political performance going forward. Viewed through a narrow spectrum, a lot of emotion was invested in Hackett, and when he didn't win it was almost as big of a letdown as Kerry's loss for many people. But over the next 10 years there will be lots of special elections, chances to expand the field slowly but surely in general elections, and eventually a Democratic President.

The netroots movement, of which Hackett has been a symbolic figurehead, will have influence ranging from minimal to enormous in these events. Looking back in many years things will have changed for the better because of the contributions and sacrifices that have yet to be made. If people want to throw all of that away because Paul Hackett made a smart decision to exit a costly primary he couldn't win, then go ahead. But they'll regret it.

Posted by Chris at February 14, 2006 02:14 AM

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